Knock on Wood: Nats are Statistical Postseason Lock

by Brian Tinsman

WASHINGTON — Cross your fingers, knock on wood or whatever else wards of jinxes–but with a record of 71-49 and 42 games remaining, the Washington Nationals are now a statistical certainty to make the MLB Postseason.

According to the MLB.com Postseason Projections page, the Nats have had a 100 percent certainty of making the postseason since August 5. Included in that is a 99.7 percent chance of winning the NL East, buoyed by a 9.5 game lead over the Miami Marlins, and an 11.5 game lead over the New York Mets.

It helps that the Nats added closer Mark Melancon at the non-waivers trade deadline, providing extra insurance against a September swoon. Over the last two weeks, the team’s winning percentage has remained steady, just south of .600.

This is a trajectory that Washington, and the rest of the division, has been on since June. After the Mets began to unravel in late May, the Nats have held unchallenged reign in the standings. On the other end of the spectrum, MLB has given the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies a zero percent chance of making the playoffs since Opening Day.

On the other end of the spectrum, MLB has given the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies a zero percent chance of making the playoffs since Opening Day.

Looking around the rest of the National League, the Chicago Cubs are the only other team that has reached 100 percent status, as they have enjoyed a wide lead in the Central Division all season. There are no 100 percent chances in the American League, as all four divisions are still too close to call.

Here is a full list of each team’s postseason probability:

National League:

Chicago Cubs: 100 percent

Washington Nationals: 100 percent

Los Angeles Dodgers: 95 percent

San Francisco: 83 percent

St. Louis: 65 percent

Pittsburgh: 37 percent

Miami: 12 percent

Mets: 9 percent

Colorado: 0 percent

Philadelphia: 0 percent

Atlanta: 0 percent

Arizona: 0 percent

Milwaukee: 0 percent

Cincinnati: 0 percent

San Diego:0 percent

 

American League: 

Texas Rangers: 96 percent

Cleveland Indians: 96 percent

Toronto Blue Jays:  89 percent

Boston Red Sox: 89 percent

Baltimore Orioles: 54 percent

Seattle Mariners: 35 percent

Detroit Tigers: 30 percent

Houston Astros: 6 percent

New York Yankees: 3 percent

Kansas City Royals: 2 percent

Chicago White Sox: 0 percent

Oakland Athletics: 0 percent

Los Angeles Angels: 0 percent

Tampa Bay Rays: 0 percent

Minnesota Twins: 0 percent

 

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