WASHINGTON (CBSDC) — A top political strategist believes tonight’s final presidential debate will determine the outcome of next month’s election.

Frank Luntz, a Republican strategist and pollster, tells CBS News that whoever has the better showing during tonight’s foreign policy debate between President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney will be the next commander in chief.

“Whoever wins this debate probably wins the election,” Luntz said. “In this case there is no other unedited opportunity for the candidates to meet with the voters.

Luntz feels the key to tonight’s debate is how to define national security.

“If you can define it in terms of our debt, our deficit, that a weak economy is weak security, then that is the advantage for Mitt Romney,” Luntz tells CBS News. “If it’s defined by experience, by leadership, then that may be an advantage for Barack Obama.”

Luntz feels that in the end voters want the candidate they can trust in the time of crisis.

Luntz added that the election will come down to two states on Nov. 6: Ohio and Wisconsin.

“It’s not about 50 states, it’s about two.”

A new Quinnipiac University/CBS News poll shows the president’s lead in Ohio has been cut in half over the past month. He currently holds a 50 to 45 percent lead over Romney.